Brief introduction of the most popular spot PVC ma

2022-07-27
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A brief introduction to the one week market of China Plastics' spot PVC (March 17 - March 21)

on Monday, China Plastics' warehouse receipt market demonstrated a first-time upsurge, with a fiery disk, high spot market prices and strong bullish intention, waiting for demand follow-up. However, the good times did not last long. At the close of Monday, the international oil price plunged sharply, which severely damaged the hot market of China Plastics warehouse receipts. From Tuesday to Friday, the China Plastics warehouse receipts index fell for four days in a row, with green waves. The main reason is that the international oil price plunged sharply, while the demand of the spot market followed slowly, and the offer is still high. As of Friday, the China Plastics price index closed at 1287.33 points, down 7.07 points from the previous week and up 23.85 points from the previous month; The China Plastics spot index closed at 1267.39, up 5.47 points from the same period last week and 23.78 points from the end of last month

I. upstream situation:

the oil price fluctuated sharply this week. At the close of Monday, the oil price plummeted by US $4.53 to US $105.68/barrel, the largest one-day decline since the beginning of August last year. However, the news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut once again aroused traders' impulse to go long. On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded strongly, approaching $110/barrel, recovering most of the losses. On Wednesday, the oil price plummeted again by US $4.94 to close at US $104.48/barrel, due to the growth of US crude oil inventories and the decline in demand for refined oil products. Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday. As of Friday, Beijing time, the settlement price of WTI may crude oil futures fell by US $0.70 to US $101.84/barrel, down US $8.49/barrel compared with the same period last week

the price of ethylene raw materials in Asia rose slightly this week, and there was no significant change from Monday to Thursday. On Thursday, CFR Northeast Asia and CFR Southeast Asia both rose $10/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of Friday, Beijing time, CFR Northeast Asia reported USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton compared with last week; CFR Southeast Asia reported USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton compared with last week

II. Market conditions:

recently, the price of domestic calcium carbide still shows an upward trend, and the demand continues to be in short supply last week. The factory quotation of 7 regions can also be changed manually if it reaches 3000; Over RMB yuan/ton, the price in East China, North China and southwest China has risen to 3500 yuan/ton, and the production and sales of calcium carbide enterprises are booming. Current market: the overall situation of PVC market in North China is stable. The price of PVC in Hebei and Shandong markets has risen, excluding the ticket price of yuan/ton. The rise in the price of calcium carbide delivered to the factory has formed a strong support for the price of PVC. The popularity of PVC market in East China has increased, and the demand of downstream enterprises has increased. At present, the mainstream price of calcium carbide five type material in the market is 7750 yuan/ton, about 60mm wide, and the quotation has also increased. The mainstream transaction price of type 5 materials in the PVC market in South China also increased, with the quotation of yuan/ton, and the overall transaction situation was relatively stable. The downstream demand improved slightly, and the traders shipped actively, but the high price supply was still resisted by the downstream enterprises, resulting in certain difficulties in sales

for chlor alkali enterprises: in the case of high calcium carbide prices and tight supply of goods, the start-up generally began to decline. The start-up of some of the enterprises with greater impact was less than 50%, and only about 70% of the enterprises with slightly higher start-up. The inventory is limited. Although the recent price rise is rapid, the profits are eaten up by the rise of calcium carbide. The profit margin is not large. The intention to continue to raise prices in the later period is still high

III. next week's trend:

in the case of slow demand recovery this week, the market price has risen sharply. In three days, the East and South China markets have risen by about 200 yuan/ton, which is surprising. The price has reached the highest point of last year ahead of schedule. The rise was mainly due to the tight price of upstream calcium carbide raw materials. At such a high level, whether the market will hit the top and decline has become the focus of attention

after a long-term stable and local shock consolidation of the market, it seems that the pace of this increase should be equipped with anti loose installation; More determined. Especially in April and may, when both production and sales are booming, most participants are optimistic about the market. Although the situation of domestic supply exceeding demand is still not absolutely improved, the short-term impact of raw materials on production and the growing demand will inject new vitality into the market. For some enterprises, the overhaul will be arranged next month. At this time, the high price report and stock up will further consolidate the belief of rising prices and play a role in fuelling the flames

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