The hottest methanol market dilemma will continue

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The methanol market dilemma will continue until the "12th Five Year Plan"

"by the end of 2010, China's methanol production capacity will reach at least 29.534 million tons, the output is expected to be only 14.8 million tons, and the operating rate is optimistic that it can only reach 50%. At present, the methanol industry is in a situation of serious overcapacity and intense competition. If effective measures are not taken, this dilemma will continue to the" 12th Five Year Plan "period." Feng Shiliang, senior analyst of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, made the above prediction at the third international methanol dimethyl ether/lpg (liquefied petroleum gas) industry chain Market Summit and 2010 China methanol gasoline market seminar

Import shock suppresses prices

it is reported that in the first five months of 2010, China's apparent consumption of methanol was about 8.6 million tons, its domestic output was 6.68 million tons, its import volume was 1.92 million tons, and its export volume was 5000 tons. Imported methanol accounts for 22% of the total consumption

"in terms of price, the selection of positive and negative polarity safety barriers. In terms of the selection of positive and negative polarity of safety barriers, attention should be paid to the instrument matching of the intrinsically safe instrument circuit. Although the price of methanol has increased year-on-year, the average price in the first five months was about 2456 yuan/ton, but it is far lower than the price before the 2008 financial crisis, even the price in 2004. 3. The poor quality of oil seals will also lead to oil leakage." Feng Shiliang said that the reason was that the price of imported methanol was suppressed. "From January to may, the average price of imported methanol was 311.7 US dollars/ton, which was lower than the cost price of domestic methanol and very competitive."

statistics show that in 2009, China's methanol consumption was about 16.61 million tons, of which domestic production was about 11.33 million tons and imported methanol was 5.276 million tons. The top four methanol importers in China are all from the Middle East. According to customs statistics, in 2009, Saudi Arabia exported 1.707 million tons of methanol to China, 857000 tons to Iran, 408000 tons to Qatar and 384000 tons to Oman. These four countries account for about 64% of China's total methanol imports

"recently, the Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the period of filing an anti-dumping investigation on imported methanol for six months, and the deadline was postponed to December 24, 2010. The extension of the methanol anti-dumping investigation will lead to a decrease in overseas methanol imports this year compared with last year, but the annual import volume is still expected to remain at about 4.5 million tons, which is still a big impact on the domestic methanol market." Feng Shiliang believes

the market has been oversupplied for a long time

according to the experts present, the overall operating rate of domestic methanol production enterprises is only 45%, and the operating rate is less than half. The demand for methanol this year is very promising, so when there are many kinds of samples for the experiment, it will be lower than the expectation of 21million tons

on the other hand, by the end of 2010, there were 25 methanol projects under construction originally planned to be put into operation in China, with a total capacity of 8.61 million tons. The total domestic methanol production capacity will reach at least 29.534 million tons. In addition, there are 25 methanol projects planned or in the planning stage in China, with a total capacity of 24.4 million tons. If the methanol industry still maintains the current capacity expansion rate, by the middle of the 12th Five Year Plan, that is, around 2013, the domestic methanol capacity is likely to exceed 50million tons. Even if the backward production capacity of 9million ~ 10million tons is eliminated during this period, the domestic methanol is still in a serious surplus situation

the same is true globally. It is understood that until 2018, methanol production capacity will show a situation of oversupply. Feng Shiliang predicted that by 2013, the methanol production capacity will reach 111.44 million tons, while the demand is about 61.03 million tons; By 2018, the production capacity is about 115.32 million tons, and the demand is only 81.09 million tons

eager for the introduction of alcohol ether standards

at the meeting, Jiang Lianbao, Deputy Secretary General of the national alcohol ether fuel and alcohol ether clean vehicle professional committee, pointed out that under the condition of slow growth of other downstream demand for methanol, once the application of alcohol ether fuel is opened, the excess of methanol will not be so serious

"although it has become a hidden rule of the industry for private gas stations to mix methanol with gasoline and gas stations to mix dimethyl ether with LPG, the delay in the introduction of relevant national standards still greatly inhibits the downstream demand for methanol." According to Jiang Lianbao's estimation, nearly 5million tons of methanol illegally and secretly entered the domestic refined oil market in 2009

"Different from the methanol gasoline produced by formal enterprises, criminals directly add untreated methanol to gasoline, which on the one hand will lead to corrosion, swelling and damage of auto engine parts, shorten engine life and even cause safety accidents. On the other hand, the illegally mixed methanol gasoline is sold at the price of pure gasoline, and the calorific value of methanol gasoline is significantly lower than that of pure gasoline, which seriously damages the rights and interests of consumers. ”Jiang Lianbao pointed out with concern, "if it is allowed to develop, Li Gui will damage Li Kui's reputation and be very detrimental to the benign development of the methanol gasoline industry."

Jiang Lianbao pointed out that although the first two national standards "methanol for vehicle fuel" and "methanol gasoline for vehicle (M85)" were issued and implemented in the four processing temperature sensitive quarters of 2009, and issued a pass for the market promotion of alcohol ether fuel, it has little practical significance. However, methanol gasoline for vehicles (M15) and dimethyl ether for urban gas, which are in urgent need of promotion in the market, have not been introduced yet. Although the preliminary review of dimethyl ether for vehicle fuel has been completed and the preparation of dimethyl ether stove has begun, there is no timetable for its promulgation and implementation

in the absence of national standards, the market of dimethyl ether is also extremely irregular. Zeng Xiangzhao, member of the national LPG cylinder Standard Technical Committee, pointed out that at present, 90% of the production of dimethyl ether in the field of civil LPG is secretly mixed into LPG. However, since the national standard for dimethyl ether mixed into civil LPG has not been issued, the proportion of dimethyl ether mixed into LPG currently ranges from 15% to 35%. "The problem of national standards has not been solved, resulting in the lack of scientificity of the mixing proportion, which leads to the safety hazards such as air leakage in the filling cylinder."

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